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Yet, for Flemington¡ªalong with communities across North America¡ªthe death of a mall has unlocked an unprecedented opportunity. Reimagined, malls that were once economic, fiscal, and social engines for their communities can play a still valuable role going forward.

Once-thriving Liberty Village represents a large site that has in effect been land banked¡ªheld aside for future redevelopment. Today this large site, still under single ownership, represents a blank slate and a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Flemington. It can adapt its downtown, and the entire community, to rapidly changing demographic, economic, and technological trends that offer a new era of livability, prosperity, and resilience.

Demographics are destiny

Before we unpack these opportunities, it is critical to acknowledge the impacts that COVID-19 has¡ªand has not¡ªhad on the issues surrounding reimagining malls. The pandemic has accelerated some trends already well underway¡ªfor example, the devastating impacts of online shopping and growing wealth disparities on strip centers, malls, big box centers, and other forms of auto-oriented retail¡ªand, of course, the growth of virtual work. At the same time, the pandemic has also accelerated interest in expanding the availability of and access to sidewalk dining, bike lanes, access to nature, and similar forms of urban amenity.

With all that said, the pandemic has not changed the transformative demographic and economic fundamentals that were firmly in place before the arrival of COVID-19 and will remain in place after vaccines enable us to move into the post-pandemic era.

In recent years, the share of new households without children has grown dramatically, reversing the previous flight to single-family subdivisions. For the next two decades, even in regions with stagnant or slow population growth, the demographic shift toward a ¡°new norm¡± in which singles and couples without kids (in the home) will dominate household growth and produce unprecedented housing demand for walkable, urban, higher-density, amenity-rich environments.?

At the same time an aging US population is spurring a growing shortage of skilled and educated workers. that communities are competing for this increasingly scarce talent, which overwhelmingly chooses to live and work in places that celebrate their lifestyles¡ªwalkable, mixed-use, amenity-rich, and denser urban places¡ªthe same places toward which a changing housing market is increasingly driving investment.

Studies in mall metamorphosis

Jason recently completed a study for NAIOP¡¯s Research Foundation, Repurposing Retail Centers: Profiles in Adaptation, Repositioning and Redevelopment. Below, we highlight some of the case studies in this report as well as projects planned and designed by our team. These profiles demonstrate the significant value gained by taking advantage of the new opportunities unlocked by the changing times described above¡ªwhile suggesting very different outcomes, for example:

• A new town center. The Brentwood Mall in Burnaby, British Columbia (located 5 miles from downtown Vancouver), opened in 1961 and was transformed into a mixed-use town center after its purchase in 2008. Shape Properties Corporation sought to respond to a plan by the Town of Burnaby and to create a new town center that enhanced the community¡¯s urban appeal as a place to live, work, and invest. Brentwood now offers a diverse mix of lively public spaces together with more than 6 million square feet of mixed-use development.

• A new mixed-use urban neighborhood. The South Bay Mall, two miles south of Downtown Boston, Massachusetts, opened in 1998 as the region¡¯s premier big box center. Two decades later, our team was hired by EDENS to transform acres of empty surface parking into a lively mixed-use urban neighborhood¡ªfrom planning to architecture. As big box sales¡ªand thereby parking demand¡ªcontinue to decline, the neighborhood will be expanded beyond the existing half a million square feet of housing, retail, entertainment, and workspaces together to include additional walkable streets and neighborhood parks.
• A new suburban downtown. The Dayton Mall, roughly 10 miles outside of Dayton, Ohio, and the largest mall between New York City and Chicago when the DeBartolo Corporation launched its development in 1969, began to decline in the early 2000s. Its host community, Miamisburg Township, asked our team to re-envision the strip of commercial development surrounding the mall. While the region¡¯s population is not growing, changing demographics are producing substantial demand for new multifamily housing in a mixed-use, walkable environment. The plan is guiding phased redevelopment of strip retail space, and eventually the mall, with a lively, walkable downtown for the Township and its neighboring suburban communities.
• An expanded home for an important community campus. The former Highland Mall site in Austin, Texas, is now a mixed-use neighborhood spearheaded by RedLeaf Properties and anchored by Austin Community College. Our team worked to design, permit, and provide construction-observation services for the first two phases of infrastructure. While in Nashville, Tennessee, One Hundred Oaks Mall is now a state-of-the-art consolidated healthcare facility, supporting a growing trend toward neighborhood-based health facilities.

May the renaissance of the American Mall begin

So, how we do we translate these observations into lessons for unlocking a new era of opportunity from dead and dying malls? We start by relying far less on auto-oriented retail and office space.

Going forward, we need to turn to a new set of tools that focus on mixed-use redevelopment, compact critical mass, walkability, complete streets, and nature. For example, creating a critical mass of lofts and townhouses can serve as the foundation for transforming a dead mall into a vital new center of community¡ªas a rule of thumb, roughly 1,000 units of new housing within a 5-minute walk can bring a lively new retail-lined ¡°Main Street¡± to life. There are, of course, other options, but whether or not it is the star, housing can play a critical role in any future scenario. Redeveloped into amenity-rich, walkable, mixed-use centers, mall sites can help attract and retain talent¡ªand the jobs, investment, and taxes that follow this talent¡ªto its host community. And going forward as mobility paradigms shift, the need to provide parking will play a far less significant role in shaping development.

Each time we reimagine the future of a mall, there will be customized considerations and realities. However, there is a process to each diagnostic that every project should include. Here¡¯s how to get started:

Launch a broadly inclusive community conversation. It will take strong community understanding and political support to move forward.

Reimagine a mall as a public/private partnership. Either partner can launch the process, but success requires that they work together¡ªand this can extend to jointly investing in transformative public realm and infrastructure. And success creates significant value for all partners.?